Posts in "Wes Messamore"

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By Wesley Messamore at 7:39PM

State of the Union: Ten Economic Graphs That Should Scare The Hell Out Of You

Crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought. ~ MIT economist Rudiger Dornbusch

At President Obama’s State of the Union Address this year, which was heavy on recycled platitudes and light on substance, the president did more to prepare for the upcoming general election than actually give a genuine assessment of the state of the union, but that’s pretty par for the course. A sincere state of the union by the President of the United States may be more than most Americans are ready for yet – the horror of listening to the president describe the true economic realities we face might be more than many people could handle. I hope I’m wrong and most Americans would welcome an honest word from a major politician as a breath of fresh air.

What would a sincere state of the union address look like? The president could just show us graphs of economic data and leave it at that. It would be the most radical truth-telling we have heard from the White House in a long time. If you really want to know the state of union and you have the stomach for it, here are ten economic graphs that show just how precarious the state of the union really is and just how long our current economic troubles are likely to last:

1. Graph of the world’s reserve currencies and the duration of their reserve currency status since 1400 C.E.

world reserve currency

Are you seeing this? When I saw this on ZeroHedge earlier this month, I decided instantly that this graph should be everywhere. Nothing lasts forever and this graph eloquently and poignantly demonstrates that world reserve currency status is no exception.  


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By Wesley Messamore at 6:59PM

What is money? (Part I)

GoldOh yes, we’re tackling the big question today. No more subtly alluding to a certain view of money and economics while assuming you “get it” too. I’m going to break it down to the fundamentals here and do so as painlessly and simply as possible.

If you’re an advocate of “sound money” or “honest money” and you want to understand your own views better or find an easier way to explain them to others, read on! If you have a friend who is new to this kind of economic thinking, this might be a good article to share with them.

Economic thinking isn’t hard. In fact, it’s quite natural and intuitive in a lot of ways. People who make it more complicated than it really is are doing so to keep you from thinking about it and to convince you that you can’t really understand it like they can. Knowledge is power. So the less honest stewards of economic thought have decided to keep that power to themselves by making the knowledge seem unattainable to people without advanced degrees or Nobel Prizes. Don’t be intimidated! Finance and economics are for everyone.


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By Wesley Messamore at 10:58AM

Should the Fed Bail out Blockbuster?

This week I arrived in my native Nashville, Tennessee after a year away from home traveling throughout this country and abroad. One thing that hasn’t changed about one of my favorite cities in the world is that I’m still allergic to it (*pops another antihistamine*). But quite a few things have changed in just one year. Sitting down to lunch with my family today, my father started asking me questions about Netflix and informed me that there isn’t a single Blockbuster store left in Nashville. They’ve all gone out of business and closed down. In the last year I’ve seen closed down Blockbuster locations all over the United States from Michigan to Virginia, so I wasn’t too surprised to hear that Nashville is now bereft of Blockbusters.

Now when Blockbuster first started, it was an incredibly innovative business concept. Its founder imitated a lot of the distribution and franchising models that made McDonald’s an international fast food success, but applied these to video rental stores. But as we’re all seeing, a business model that created so much value and became such a stellar success beginning in the 1980s, just doesn’t create enough value to remain competitive in the 2010s. It’s been killed off by more efficient and cost-effective business models like RedBox and Netflix, which create more value for their customers by providing cheaper video rentals with a lot more convenience. Yet Blockbuster’s destruction means its employees are losing their jobs and its investors are losing their profits. Should Blockbuster get a bail out?


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By Wesley Messamore at 12:59PM

The Federal Reserve and Santa Claus [Spoiler Alert]

santa

Spoiler Alert: If there are any six year olds reading this blog, you can skip today’s post. It’s not written for you. Do the right thing and click the “x” on this tab right now. Santa’s watching.

I believed in Santa Claus a little longer than most children do. For some reason, as long as I couldn’t definitely prove that my parents were the ones leaving presents under the Christmas tree, I wasn’t ready to completely reject the possibility that it really was jolly old Saint Nick riding a sleigh pulled by reindeer and magically shrinking himself small enough to slip under the front door or through the key hole and into my house (we didn’t have a chimney).

And my parents were incredibly sneaky. I never once caught them. But when I finally told my dad I didn’t believe in Santa any more, he said, with a sly grin, “Santa doesn’t deliver presents to kids who don’t believe in him,” and I promptly responded, “I believe! I believe!” The matter was settled. I got some awesome Legos that year.

The Federal Reserve, fiat money, and inflationary stimulus policies are no different than the Santa Claus of our childhoods. The only problem is that so many adults still believe in them.


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By Wesley Messamore at 5:05PM

Twas the Night before Christmas...

Twas the night before Christmas, and all through the world
Every heart was stirring, as a nightmare unfurled.
The stocks on the ticker were watched with care,
In hopes that Bernanke soon would be there.

The traders were restless, sprawled out in their beds,
While visions of stimulus danced in their heads.
And those of us who’d already learned history’s lesson,
Bought silver and gold to wait out the depression.

When across the Atlantic there arose such a clatter,
I checked ZeroHedge to see what was the matter.
Away with the Euro they did in a flash,
A modern economy now rubble and ash.


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By Wesley Messamore at 7:51PM
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By Wesley Messamore at 7:32PM

The Unemployment Numbers Mean Nothing

unemployment lineBad analysis:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ most recent unemployment figures are out along with all sorts of analysis from the deluded “See? The economy’s healing. Not very fast, but it’s healing! Chin up there, America,” to the more sober “No, the economy is not healing; people are just giving up on looking for jobs. The numbers say so.”

And they do. But let’s zoom out -- like way out, and ask just why so many commentators, even the most sober among them, are treating employment numbers like some kind of useful metric for measuring the health of the economy and deciding whether it’s “healing” or not? I mean, right– even if the employment rate were a good measure, the latest figures are still hardly encouraging, but sound economic analysis has to go so much deeper than that. As far as measuring the overall health of the economy goes, the unemployment numbers mean nothing.

Good analysis:

It’s a lot like what one commentator recently said about Black Friday sales, another stupid metric that the media and politicians obsess over as if it were some kind of fool-proof economic barometer:

‘You know the economy and stock market are in deep trouble when the Mainstream Media elevates one essentially meaningless metric to “The One Meaningful Statistic” and then trumpets it slavishly. One such meaningless metric is Black Friday.


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By Wesley Messamore at 1:34PM

100 Reasons to End the Fed

fed headline

This is an important resource I've put together to help educate people about the evils of central banking and inflationary monetary policy. Please share this around as much as you can! Here are the first ten reasons to End the Fed:

1. The Federal Reserve System constantly inflates the value of our dollar by printing money out of thin air.

2. Graph: The value of a $1 Federal Reserve Note in 1913 dollars (the year the Fed was created).

3. The Fed even recognizes its inflationary activity. The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston says: “When you or I write a check there must be sufficient funds in our account to cover the check, but when the Federal Reserve writes a check there is no bank deposit on which that check is drawn. When the Federal Reserve writes a check, it is creating money.”

4. American economist Irving Fisher said: “Thus, our national circulating medium is now at the mercy of loan transactions of banks, which lend, not money, but promises to supply money they do not possess.”

5. If you or I did what the Fed does when it prints money, we would be found guilty of counterfeiting and locked up for a very long time!

6. The reason you or I would be arrested for counterfeiting is it’s theft! Every bill you create in bad faith, which doesn’t actually represent the creation of real goods and services, real value that has improved life by directing resources to their most productive uses, is a lie and an appropriation of value from the rest of the world, which gives the counterfeiter goods and services in exchange for nothing, because he or she did not actually create anything of value in return.

7. This is true of what the Federal Reserve does: “Neither paper currency nor deposits have value as commodities, intrinsically, a ‘dollar’ bill is just a piece of paper. Deposits are merely book entries.” – Modern Money Mechanics Workbook, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1975

8. “The Fed creates absolutely nothing. It does not produce a single grain of wheat to feed people, a single drop of oil to power the engines of an industrial economy, nor a single ingot of metal from the ground to build the products and buildings that improve our lives.” -Wesley Messamore

9. This situation, in which you or I would be arrested for doing something the Federal Reserve does every day, is the hallmark of institutionalized theft and a legal system turned on its head. As French economist Frederic Bastiat said in the 19th century: “But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply… See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime.”

10. The inflation that results from the Federal Reserve’s massive counterfeiting operation steals from hardworking Americans by diminishing the value of the money they earn.

Read the rest here.

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By Wesley Messamore at 11:41AM

The Super Committee Failed Because Neither Side Is Willing To Give Up Washington's Empire

fail

As the so-called super committee announced its inability to come up with a plan for deficit reduction by its Nov 23rd deadline, the sheer magnitude of dysfunction on Capitol Hill was perhaps best summarized by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who said:

Both sides of the aisle, both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue – they cannot even come up with something that would not have even solved the problem.

 That’s a key point to remember, that the 12-member super committee was simply tasked with finding $1.2 trillion to cut out of the federal budget over the next ten years. $1.2 trillion in cuts might not even balance the budget next year alone. With that in mind, Mayor Bloomberg’s criticism– which so aptly and pithily captures the absurdity of the deficit debacle that it could just as easily have been a Jon Stewart line– rings absolutely true. Congress cannot even come up with something that would not have even solved the problem. Can there be any wonder that its approval ratings remain so low?


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By Wesley Messamore at 7:53PM

The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Accuses Fed Critics of "Four Misconceptions"

In an anti-Fed rant this week, I criticized Ben Bernanke for saying that any criticism of the Federal Reserve is based on misconceptions. What are these misconceptions? Give me an argument; don’t just say I’m wrong and then rest on the laurels of your credentials and prestige. I wrote:

I would like to hear Bernanke elaborate on his claim. I would like to understand just what it is that I don’t understand when I criticize the Federal Reserve Bank. How are my conceptions actually misconceptions?

What do you know– the very next day, The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston posted the text of a speech that Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren gave today, entitled Four Common Misconceptions About the Federal Reserve. Now I’m not seriously suggesting that The Boston Fed was responding to us, but it’s a pretty cool coincidence, especially since we know they’re reading blogs that talk about them and we’ve actually seen the traces of the Boston Federal Reserve IT department in our analytic logs. Cool, huh? Intentionally or not (again, probably not), The Boston Fed president answered my exact question and I’ve got to give him credit for doing that much. Of course I also have to rebut his answers, because they’re pretty weak.

Read my four rebuttals to the Fed president's four "misconceptions" here.