Posts in "recession"

By Kevin Brett at 4:41PM

Aug 18, 2010

I Don't Wanna Grow Up; I'm A Boomerang Kid!

The New York Times published an article today citing the emerging phenomenon of delayed financial independence for the 20-something generation. In typical NYT fashion, the article makes every attempt to discount the economic condition as a fundamental contributor to the shifting social order. Instead, "emerging adulthood" psychology professor, Jeffrey Arnett, is called upon to bring credence to the idea that the "failure to launch" generation is influenced just as greatly (if not more) by their tendency towards liberalized decision making as opposed to the economic landscape.

Kids don’t shuffle along in unison on the road to maturity. They slouch toward adulthood at an uneven, highly individual pace. Some never achieve all five milestones [completing school, leaving home, becoming financially independent, marrying and having a child], including those who are single or childless by choice, or unable to marry even if they wanted to because they’re gay. Others reach the milestones completely out of order, advancing professionally before committing to a monogamous relationship, having children young and marrying later, leaving school to go to work and returning to school long after becoming financially secure.

While the article does provide insight into the collective psyche of "the boomerang kids", the overall analysis weighs too heavily in favor of a newfound paradigm of personal choice and not the reality of lacking options. This should come as no surprise, as the NYT has been one of the foremost advocates of the "hopeful change" socialization process. It's much easier to chalk the newly destitute workforce up as a youthful generation grappling with the real-world application of whimsical idealistic fantasies than to take responsibility for a fundamental failure in economic policy and the inability to address the root causes of our problems.

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By Jeremy Davis at 10:08AM

Aug 13, 2010

Leaving Afghanistan Behind

When it comes to armed conflict, timelines for withdrawal mean nothing if the war is undeclared. Goals are always set in the vaguest of terms with the intention of prolonging the conflict to establish a long-term commitment and remove all possibilities of a total and complete withdraw.

So when we are told by the Obama Administration that the end is near for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, it’s far too easy to be skeptical. The president’s intentionally vague plan to begin removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan in July 2011 is nothing more than a continuance of his campaign rhetoric meant to portray his administration as a sponsor of peace. Surely we haven’t forgotten about the president’s Nobel Peace Prize.

Now we hear calls by U.S. military leaders for the president to stunt his plans for a rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan on the argument that we’re just now getting it right after nine years. Those fearful of a swift withdrawal from Afghanistan can be rest assured that if there can be found a way for the government to drag its feet and reverse its commitments in the removal of U.S. troops, it will be used.

The Shape of the Recession

Options include(from least to most grim): V, U, W, WW, L. Wait, maybe that last one really ought to be |________. From Mish Shedlock's Global Economic Trend Analysis:

The global slowdown – already evident in second-quarter data for 2010 – will accelerate in the second half of the year. Fiscal stimulus will disappear as austerity programs take hold in most countries. Inventory adjustments, which boosted growth for a few quarters, will run their course. The effects of tax policies that stole demand from the future – such as incentives for buyers of cars and homes – will diminish as programs expire. Labor-market conditions remain weak, with little job creation and a spreading sense of malaise among consumers....Avoiding double dip [or W] recession will be difficult....Fasten your seat belts for a very bumpy ride.

Shedlock himself is even less optimistic, noting that an L-shaped recession is indeed possible:

More likely to me is something like an "L" or a "WW" kind of scenario with the U.S. slipping in and out of recession for a prolonged period of time, perhaps 3-4 years or more....

If the Fed and Congress drag this out, which at this point seems likely, we will see a severe "L" or "WW" shaped recession playing out over several (or more) years.

It's a fairly dire picture, to say the least. Read more of Shedlock's reasoning behind his prediction here.

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By Nick Leavens at 1:02PM

Jul 9, 2010

Double Dip Recessions and What to Do about Them

In stark contrast to a story last week that painted President Fanklin Roosevelt as the greatest U.S. President of all time, a story in today's Washington Post asks if President Obama isn't perhaps following in the same economic missteps that FDR took in the mid to late 1930's.

By fixating on the debt and stimulus plans, Obama and Congress are overlooking challenges to the economy from taxes, employment and the entrepreneurial environment. President Roosevelt's great error was to ignore such factors -- and the result was that sickening double dip.

Ah, yes, the infamous double dip. Good when in reference to ice cream consumption, but scary when mentioned in regards to economic patterns. It's too bad that the author completely shrugs off the fact that the inability of President Obama and Congress to correctly deal with the debt that our nation holds is the poison that continues to strangle our economy. Economic strategist, and candidate for U.S. Senate in Connecticut, Peter Schiff explains why double dips happen in the first place in this video from December '09.

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By Creighton Harrington at 11:40PM

Mar 2, 2010

A Leap of Faith from the Bunning Affair

Yes, bear with me on this one.

First I want to give Bunning some credit. If you don't know what's going on, he is halting the Senate essentially (although they could vote today regardless of his objection) on a 30 day extension for jobless benefits funds. He's getting a lot of heat because he just up and decided that this is what he would raise objection on, yet he supported the Bush tax cuts, war funding, etc. In that aspect suspicion is rightly placed. However, I've been watching alot of news programs twist this into partisan politic, wickedness, etc. This is what he is really doing. He's not trying to halt jobless benefits; he wants to take the money for it from allocated funds, like stimulus funds, instead of increasing the debt. That's it. So, I'll give him a pat on the back for sticking to a principle (even if it just suddenly appeared).

Government Massively Underestimates Severity of Recession

What a surprise. From CNN Money:

As bad as the government's jobs readings numbers have been during the Great Recession, we'll soon find out the real situation likely was worse.
Much worse.
Job losses during the recession may have been underestimated by close to a million jobs. So instead of employers cutting just over 7 million jobs from their payrolls since the economic downturn began in December 2007, it's expected that the Labor Department's new estimate will be a loss of 8 million jobs.
"It's an enormous understatement of the severity of the crisis," said Heidi Shierholz, labor economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a union-supported think tank. "It confirms that things were actually worse on the ground than what the reports suggested."

"Welcome To Obamaville: Colorado's Fastest Growing Community" Reads Homeless Camp Sign

Signs This story broke in Colorado Springs, Colorado, where residents found this controversial sign at a homeless camp. Colorado's station KRDO was first to break the story, and now the station has made a "public appeal for information" on who the originator was.

Though Spencer Swann of Colorado Canyon Signs admits to the contruction of the sign, he refuses to inform the media whom he built it for. Since then, Swann has replaced the sign with a "Please help. We need firewood, propane and canned food" sign. Though public perception of the sign was mixed, Swann said: "I've had 100 calls today, and not a single one of them was negative." He also claimed that the originator is a person who is devoted to the homeless cause, stating: "He gives them money, he gives them food, he gives them support."

Great sign. I just wish there was a smiliar one during the Bush administration.

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By Brian Beyer at 6:13PM

Dec 7, 2009

Our Current Crisis: Austrian Style

For a great Austrian economic primer to the crisis, read this study from the Foundation for Economic Freedom:

Get it here.

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By Brian Beyer at 2:34PM

Nov 29, 2009

Bernanke's "Remedy"

In this Washington Post article, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, makes the case for "good reform" for the Fed. Covertly aiming the whole article at the two bills that would expose the Federal Reserve's secretive policies, H.R. 1207 and S. 604, Bernanke offers more of the same rather than real reform.

Bernanke writes,

" The Fed played a major part in arresting the crisis, and we should be seeking to preserve, not degrade, the institution's ability to foster financial stability and to promote economic recovery without inflation."

10/28/09 Nightly Roundup

Is the bear market rally in stocks finally coming to its inevitable end?
Neocon Sarah Palin's surprising endorsement of a third party candidate is an encouraging sign.
But while Palin postures -- perhaps more authentically than most Repukes -- as pro-life, the establishment state she supports treats human life as a disposable means to an end.
The (aforementioned) anti-free speech, "tolerance" Stazi is still defaming libertarain titan Walter Block.
Speaking of PC totalitarianism, the British government schools are apparently compiling "cases" of racism (and creeping poor kids of all colors out in the process).
Most seriously, Barack Obama is -- politician as he is -- eyeing some sort of "compromise" on Afghanistan.