I would like to focus on three price indexes that were released in the last week: the 'Import and Export Prices', the 'Producer Price Index', and the 'Consumer Price Index'. These particular indexes are for October of 2009. The vast majority of analysts believe that the year over year and month over month percentage changes in these price indexes are too low to warrant any concerns for coming price inflation, but I disagree.
First, the year over year rate is flawed in a sense. When the stock market crashes and prices for commodities plummet, the year over year rate is going to be low (i.e., pre-crash prices to post-crash prices). In the past one and a half years, oil had skyrocketed to $150 in July of 2008 and fell to a low of $30 in February of 2009. In October of 2008, the average oil price (computed from here by averaging all of the oil prices for October of 2008) was nearly $74. Fastforwarding to October of 2009, the average oil price was nearly $76. So yes, year over year the price change for oil appears to be subdued; however, if oil remains at its current price of around $80 for the next several months, we will see a year over year percentage increase in price of nearly 267%. That is hardly subdued!