The Shape of the Recession

Bonnie Kristian's picture
By Bonnie Kristian at 4:33PM

Options include(from least to most grim):  V, U, W, WW, L.  Wait, maybe that last one really ought to be |________.   From Mish Shedlock's Global Economic Trend Analysis:

The global slowdown – already evident in second-quarter data for 2010 – will accelerate in the second half of the year. Fiscal stimulus will disappear as austerity programs take hold in most countries. Inventory adjustments, which boosted growth for a few quarters, will run their course. The effects of tax policies that stole demand from the future – such as incentives for buyers of cars and homes – will diminish as programs expire. Labor-market conditions remain weak, with little job creation and a spreading sense of malaise among consumers....Avoiding double dip [or W] recession will be difficult....Fasten your seat belts for a very bumpy ride.

Shedlock himself is even less optimistic, noting that an L-shaped recession is indeed possible:

More likely to me is something like an "L" or a "WW" kind of scenario with the U.S. slipping in and out of recession for a prolonged period of time, perhaps 3-4 years or more....

If the Fed and Congress drag this out, which at this point seems likely, we will see a severe "L" or "WW" shaped recession playing out over several (or more) years.

It's a fairly dire picture, to say the least.  Read more of Shedlock's reasoning behind his prediction here.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.